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start of the rainy season--guess when?

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start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by JayBear on Thu May 11, 2017 8:51 pm

Bob, are we having the annual guess as to when the rainy season will start? Depraved as I am, I have enjoyed this. Last year, I guessed June 15, and the first rain arrived on June 14th, but hey, I was close!!! The older I get, the less thrilled I get with the hot weather and the "rainbirds" (cicadas). The annual contest allows me some hope of at least being right! (A six pack of Negra Modelo would be better compensation, but hey!)

So, being tired of hot weather already, I am putting in for June 13. I believe I remember that mist and drizzle does not count, is that right?

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by gobluejohn on Fri May 12, 2017 7:36 am

Bob, with all of the changes in weather theses days, I say it will be June 10th
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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by CanuckBob on Fri May 12, 2017 7:42 am

I thought we kind of started it in this thread however starting a new one is OK too.

http://www.insidelakeside.com/t18386-rain-birds-last-3-days?highlight=rain+bird


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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by windrider17 on Fri May 12, 2017 8:42 am

I'm good for the 6 pack to the winner(s).  Bob is the final judge as to who wins.

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by CanuckBob on Fri May 12, 2017 8:59 am

Ok. I will abstain from the contest.
Beer

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by slainte39 on Fri May 12, 2017 9:23 am

2017!!!....is my guess.

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by windrider17 on Fri May 12, 2017 11:01 am

No need to abstain, Bob. Not trying to punish you. We trust you. Participants must choose a specific date, and there needs to be an understanding of what constitutes the "start" of the season.

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by Trailrunner on Fri May 12, 2017 11:16 am

What's the prize???
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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by windrider17 on Fri May 12, 2017 11:30 am

6 pack of your choice or substitution of comparably priced wine. Big prizes for a big contest.

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by CanuckBob on Fri May 12, 2017 11:33 am

I'll take June 5 then. What constitutes the start is a tricky one. Any suggestions?

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by suegarn on Fri May 12, 2017 12:10 pm

CanuckBob wrote:I'll take June 5 then. What constitutes the start is a tricky one. Any suggestions?

My suggestion would be that it would have to rain steadily for a minimum of one hour (no drizzling off and on), and be a measurable amount of rain to be considered the true start of the 'rainy season'.

Does that sound reasonable to most of you? If so, my prediction will be June 9th.

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by CanuckBob on Fri May 12, 2017 12:36 pm

Hmmmm.....that typically happens a few times before the end of May. There needs to be a lot more than that IMO. I'm thinking we need at least two or three inches in a single rainfall with a bunch of thunder and lightening and we need another one the day after.

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by MexicoPete on Fri May 12, 2017 12:48 pm

I copied this: This is used elsewhere

In order to be deemed a real start, the rain has to fall three times in a week, be clearly generated by the easterlies the shift of which denoted the beginning of our season and have to add up to 3.8 cm (1.5 inches) in the first 7 day week. The date of the first rain in the qualifying trio is the win date.
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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by CanuckBob on Fri May 12, 2017 1:01 pm

I agree with 3 times in a week but the amount should be way more than 1.5" and who cares about which direction it is coming from. There is already tropical storms forming in the pacific which could easily blow into here.

Of course we also know it can rain 4" in Chapala and nada in SJC so where does the measurement take place.......jaja.

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by CanuckBob on Fri May 12, 2017 1:06 pm

So how about we just say it has to rain (substantially) on 3 days within a 7 day period. The first day of that would be considered the start of the rainy season. No actual amount or wind direction required.

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by windrider17 on Fri May 12, 2017 1:15 pm

I like the three-day issue, but there needs to be an official location for measuring what is substantial. I am familiar with the Chapala weather net gauge and there is a link to one in Rancho del Oro which could also work.  I'm not aware of any other spots, but any designated one will work. IMHO.

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by CanuckBob on Fri May 12, 2017 1:20 pm

OK, lets use both. If either one (or a combination of both) record say 2" (overall) during those 3 days of rain then we have it?

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by DaveP on Fri May 12, 2017 2:41 pm

Bob: The rainy season in Mexico is predicated on the North East Trade Winds. Not rains from the Pacific which are irregular and not sustainable or for that matter, not predictable.

Rains brought by the North East Trades are predictable and are sustainable because of the strength of NE Trades. Those are the winds that were used to cross the Atlantic in the days of sail.

So the rainy season does not start until the North East Winds blow. Mexico Pete is correct

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by gobluejohn on Fri May 12, 2017 3:09 pm

how about not so much lightning, we got blown up a few years ago, tv lap tops, phone, etc
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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by suegarn on Fri May 12, 2017 3:35 pm

gobluejohn wrote:how about not so much lightning, we got blown up a few years ago, tv lap tops, phone, etc

I agree! I definitely can do without the lightning and thunder. Don't mind the rain, even the gullywashers are interesting!

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by tombo on Fri May 12, 2017 7:17 pm

So, the time/day we are guessing is the rain that begins on the third/last day of that 3 days of substantial rain within a week or less? There must be an easier way to say that. Regardless, our guess is 10PM June 12.
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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by Clete on Fri May 12, 2017 7:32 pm

[quote="DaveP"]Bob: The rainy season in Mexico is predicated on the North East Trade Winds. Not rains from the Pacific which are irregular and not sustainable or for that matter, not predictable.

Rains brought by the North East Trades are predictable and are sustainable because of the strength of NE Trades. Those are the winds that were used to cross the Atlantic in the days of sail.

So the rainy season does not start until the North East Winds blow. Mexico Pete is correct[/quote]

The rainy season is at different times in different parts of Mexico. And most of the moisture that falls in Jalisco comes from the Pacific.

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by brigitte on Fri May 12, 2017 7:49 pm

The rainy season has started in Chiapas..we are usually a month ahead of Jalisco and right now there is a storm on the west coast north of Tapachula. Down in Chiapas the rains come from the Pacific and the gulf .

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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by Trailrunner on Fri May 12, 2017 8:00 pm

"So the rainy season does not start until the North East Winds blow." I agree with this.
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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

Post by ferret on Fri May 12, 2017 8:55 pm

I am ready. My roof is done, my tinaco is cleaned, my aljibe is cleaned and my new gutter goes up tomorrow.

BTW, on this date (May 12th) last year, there was a gully washer of over 2 inches in La Huerta. It blew off a 1 metre by 2 metre skylight and caused me a lot of grief by soaking all the important papers that I had removed from my desk to pack. They were sitting on a table directly below the skylight. I got up to find out what was happening and turned on the light/fan. The fan started flicking water at me and I was standing in over an inch of water while I surveyed the damage in front of me. Crap. Turned off the fan/light and went back to bed.
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Re: start of the rainy season--guess when?

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