Change or weather.

My memory of the Pacific hurricanes is that we do get the very outer bands, not saying we don't get any rain from them, but that the Atlantic ones, if they don't just go north and veer off into the southern US, have more of an impact and produce more rain for our area than the Pacific hurricanes.

When I lived in Joco I noticed the rainy season often started sooner here in Ajijic/Chapala than out on the west end. It's much drier out there than here.

I will pay more attention this year with the hurricanes.

CanuckBob wrote:Hmmmm.......well it seems to me that every pacific hurricane that came anywhere near the coast dumped significant rain on us. I don't know of any from the Atlantic or Caribbean that did.

Sue, you will learn that the rain here varies greatly from area to area. You can get 4" in Chapala and sunny skies in Ajijic or vice versa.

Mother Nature's purpose is dumping an early "teaser" rain is to kindly let the people know where their roofs leak.
Yesterday, I saw a lot of people up on them.  We bought some of that fixit "stuff", too.

Mother Nature is thoughtful that way.

CanuckBob wrote:Hmmmm.......well it seems to me that every pacific hurricane that came anywhere near the coast dumped significant rain on us. I don't know of any from the Atlantic or Caribbean that did.

Sue, you will learn that the rain here varies greatly from area to area. You can get 4" in Chapala and sunny skies in Ajijic or vice versa.

Oh I definitely learned that the very first year that I lived here. I find that most times, the west side of Ajijic usually gets less rain than centro or east!

I still feel that the official start of the rainy season will be June 9th. That's my prediction!

I can't remember who to credit for this link but it was someone on TOB. It is a fascinating map of wind movement and the next two or three weeks is always interesting. https://earth.nullschool.net/#current/wind/surface/level/overlay=total_cloud_water/orthographic=-99.94,22.95,1908

Our accumulation of rain here is entirely dependent on which way the wind blows literally. If there's a storm in the Pacific early in the season and it makes landfall below the southern tip of the Banderas Bay then we will usually benefit. But the wind changes from on onshore breeze to an offshore breeze from that southern tip and northward around the middle to the end of June. That is why there are very few direct hits from hurricanes in that area. Kenna was one of the exceptions.
Ever notice that the thundershowers here nearly always start from the east end of the lake and travel west to Joco during the official rainy season? The wind changing will bring moisture from the Gulf whether or not a hurricane is involved. That is OUR rainy season.
Watch the wind on the link... it's an hypnotic pastime. And it's fun to notice the swirls of potential hurricane development and predict where it will land before you check the hurricane tracking website.
Who needs satellite TV...

Kenna went ashore in Puerto Vallarta which was indeed a rare occurrence. But it doesn't take a direct hit upon the coast of Jalisco for a Pacific hurricane to drop moisture on the area. Even when they follow their normal path towards the NW, their proximity will many times bring rain to our area. Even when they hit further south, say in Guerrero or Michoacan, we'll get rain as they continue north over land. Offshore winds on the coast are rare in the summer. They are typically southerlies coming up from the Gulf of Tehuantepec.

And speaking of Kenna and it's unusual arrival in PV, in 2011 Jova hit directly south near Manzanillo and Barra de Navidad as did Patricia in 2017.

It's fun to try to predict the weather, but anyone who has spent time sailing, knows this often unreliable. It takes years to be able to read the birds, the waves, even the smells. I was never to rise to that skill level - but it is very real. I think many farmers have this skill level as well. The climate scientists that I have been reading are saying climate change is not so much a warming, but rather seasonal weather patterns are getting "stuck". They could be a dry season, a cold season and they last many weeks more than their historical norms. For example the weather in Puerto Vallarta and Nayarit has been "stuck" in early spring temperatures for the past three months. At daytime highs of 82F, it is actually cooler than here. Much of California got "stuck" in an historical drought, then a historical amount of rainfall. I don't think history isn't as much use for weather prediction any more.

If you've been checking the wind patterns from my link morning and evening the last two days, you will have noticed offshore breezes (at the Bay of Banderas) in the morning and onshore breezes in the evening. You will have also been watching the "swirl" on the Pacific side of southern Mexico develop. It went from just a swirl to a "less than 40%" chance to a "greater than 60%" chance this morning on the National Hurricane site.
This baby's gonna become a hurricane, imho, and where it lands and when it lands may give us rain.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/?epac

Why don't they just say the rainy season begins the end of May, starts off slowly and then comes in like a flood the middle of June rather than all the bickering? Who's to say that it's official, a termite? Isn't water falling from the sky enough evidence, the annual frog croaking, the night of the termites, the invasion of ants? There are certain things that just happen this time of year. I do wonder if we'll see tarantulas this year? Nothing quite like a tarantula walking up your driveway after dark or having one crawl up your screen door! I just don't want them in my house, they're fine outside. It rained last night at my house in Chapala, if it rains tonight, it's official? I don't see that rain is in the forecast today but who's to say?

The winds to watch right now are the polar jet streams. They have become very unstable, and change the weather patterns all over the globe. Google if you are interested. The Arctic of Canada has had unprecedented warm weather, year round snow packs have disappeared, animals are dying.

There's been some good clusters of thunderstorms in the Guad area and 20-30 miles south of here over the past few days but they have been missing us.

Maybe we will get lucky

CanuckBob wrote:

RVGRINGO wrote:The current crop will argue about anything; absolutely anything.

Yep......

And that is an understatement!

http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

Massive storm system to the east of us in the Gulf of Mexico. I've been here 12 years and I don't remember this big a storm this early. It's off the east coast, from whence our summer rains come.

Every year, it is the same thing: I lie around on the sofa, complaining of the heat, and then we get a big storm, and I am hunting for my raincoat, umbrella, rain shoes and BOAT!

Looks promising! My weather report just changed to chance of rain this evening, hah!

I broke down and bought a portable air unit this year. We had window air units in the bedrooms in our home in Guadalajara and left them there when we sold the house. I just can't take the heat and it came so early this year. Today has been great! 10 degrees cooler than it has been. I guess I can roll the a/c into the closet till next year :)

just heard thunder! The rainy season may be official! 3 rains in 6 days someone said!

Well, I have the swamp cooler filled and at the ready, but so far the weather is NOT hot like usual, altho I am showering off my feet and washing my hands in cold water and sitting if front of the fan! (Try it--it helps!) (Cold beer also helps!) Twelve years here, and it sure would be nice NOT to have an uncomfortable lead-up to the rainy season! Let us hope!!!

JayBear wrote:http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/DATA/RT/EPAC/IR4/20.jpg

Massive storm system to the east of us in the Gulf of Mexico. I've been here 12 years and I don't remember this big a storm this early. It's off the east coast, from whence our summer rains come.

Every year, it is the same thing: I lie around on the sofa, complaining of the heat, and then we get a big storm, and I am hunting for my raincoat, umbrella, rain shoes and BOAT!

Looking at the image that you sent, the big storm system is in the Pacific, a much smaller one is in the Gulf!

Check the Weather Channel! There is a huge storm covering most of the east coast of Mexico and expanding. If we get rain soon, it is from that.

CHILLIN wrote:The winds to watch right now are the polar jet streams. They have become very unstable, and change the weather patterns all over the globe. Google if you are interested. The Arctic of Canada has had unprecedented warm weather, year round snow packs have disappeared, animals are dying.

BTW, Chillin, on the link of the wind, you can left click on the cursor, hold it and move the map to wherever in the world that you want to check out the patterns. It just takes a few seconds to refresh when you release the click. The map will automatically revert to Mexico the next time you look at it.

JayBear wrote:Check the Weather Channel! There is a huge storm covering most of the east coast of Mexico and expanding. If we get rain soon, it is from that.

And that is coming from the south off of the Pacific, heading north.  There are no storms in the Atlantic according to NHC.

http://www.goes.noaa.gov/HURRLOOPS/hpwv.html

There is a weather system in the Gulf that will also extend inland. But, it is not a hurricane and is not likely to be which is why you don't see it on the Hurricane web sites.
http://smn.cna.gob.mx/es/

This is the Conagua map (dated today) showing rainfall potential

We all get so stacked up this time of year. I prefer to look out the window.