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More on the virus

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Post by Jreboll Mon Aug 30, 2021 6:52 pm

View in browser|nytimes.com

August 30, 2021
Author Headshot
By David Leonhardt
Good morning. Vaccine immunity may not really be waning much — which means universal booster shots may do little good.

A mobile vaccine clinic in West Palm Beach, Fla., this month.Saul Martinez for The New York Times
The booster-industrial complex
Late last month, researchers in Israel released some alarming new Covid-19 data. The data showed that many Israelis who had been among the first to receive the vaccine were nonetheless catching the Covid virus. Israelis who had been vaccinated later were not getting infected as often.

The study led to headlines around the world about waning immunity — the idea that vaccines lose their effectiveness over time. In the U.S., the Israeli study accelerated a debate about vaccine booster shots and played a role in the Biden administration’s recent recommendation that all Americans receive a booster shot eight months after their second dose.

But the real story about waning immunity is more complex than the initial headlines suggested. Some scientists believe that the Israeli data was misleading and that U.S. policy on booster shots has gotten ahead of the facts. The evidence for waning immunity is murky, these scientists say, and booster shots may not have a big effect.

After returning from an August break last week, I have spent time reaching out to scientists to ask for their help in understanding the current, confusing stage of the pandemic. How worried should vaccinated people be about the Delta variant? How much risk do children face? Which parts of the Covid story are being overhyped, and which deserve more attention?

I will be trying to answer these questions in the coming weeks. (I’d also like to know what questions you want answered; submit them here.)

One of the main messages I’m hearing from the experts is that conventional wisdom about waning immunity is problematic. Yes, the immunity from the Covid vaccines will wane at some point. But it may not yet have waned in a meaningful way.

“There’s a big difference between needing another shot every six months versus every five years,” Dr. David Dowdy, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University, told me. “So far, looking at the data we have, I’m not seeing much evidence that we’ve reached that point yet.”

Simpson strikes again
At first glance, the Israeli data seems straightforward: People who had been vaccinated in the winter were more likely to contract the virus this summer than people who had been vaccinated in the spring.

Yet it would truly be proof of waning immunity only if the two groups — the winter and spring vaccine recipients — were otherwise similar to each other. If not, the other differences between them might be the real reason for the gap in the Covid rates.

As it turns out, the two groups were different. The first Israelis to have received the vaccine tended to be more affluent and educated. By coincidence, these same groups later were among the first exposed to the Delta variant, perhaps because they were more likely to travel. Their higher infection rate may have stemmed from the new risks they were taking, not any change in their vaccine protection.

Statisticians have a name for this possibility — when topline statistics point to a false conclusion that disappears when you examine subgroups. It’s called Simpson’s Paradox.

This paradox may also explain some of the U.S. data that the C.D.C. has cited to justify booster shots. Many Americans began to resume more indoor activities this spring. That more were getting Covid may reflect their newfound Covid exposure (as well as the arrival of Delta), rather than any waning of immunity over time.

‘Where is it?’
Sure enough, other data supports the notion that vaccine immunity is not waning much.

The ratio of positive Covid tests among older adults and children, for example, does not seem to be changing, Dowdy notes. If waning immunity were a major problem, we should expect to see a faster rise in Covid cases among older people (who were among the first to receive shots). And even the Israeli analysis showed that the vaccines continued to prevent serious Covid illness at essentially the same rate as before.

“If there’s data proving the need for boosters, where is it?” Zeynep Tufekci, the sociologist and Times columnist, has written.

Part of the problem is that the waning-immunity story line is irresistible to many people. The vaccine makers — Pfizer, Moderna and others — have an incentive to promote it, because booster shots will bring them big profits. The C.D.C. and F.D.A., for their part, have a history of extreme caution, even when it harms public health. We in the media tend to suffer from bad-news bias. And many Americans are so understandably frightened by Covid that they pay more attention to alarming signs than reassuring ones.

The bottom line
Here’s my best attempt to give you an objective summary of the evidence, free from alarmism — and acknowledging uncertainty:

Immunity does probably wane modestly within the first year of receiving a shot. For this reason, booster shots make sense for vulnerable people, many experts believe. As Dr. Céline Gounder of Bellevue Hospital Center told my colleague Apoorva Mandavilli, the C.D.C.’s data “support giving additional doses of vaccine to highly immunocompromised persons and nursing home residents, not to the general public.”

The current booster shots may do little good for most people. The vaccines continue to provide excellent protection against illness (as opposed to merely a positive Covid test). People will eventually need boosters, but it may make more sense to wait for one specifically designed to combat a variant. “We don’t know whether a non-Delta booster would improve protection against Delta,” Dr. Aaron Richterman of the University of Pennsylvania told me.

A national policy of frequent booster shots has significant costs, financially and otherwise. Among other things, the exaggerated discussion of waning immunity contributes to vaccine skepticism.

While Americans are focusing on booster shots, other policies may do much more to beat back Covid, including more vaccine mandates in the U.S.; a more rapid push to vaccinate the world (and prevent other variants from taking root); and an accelerated F.D.A. study of vaccines for children.

As always, we should be open to changing our minds as we get new evidence. As Richterman puts it, “We have time to gather the appropriate evidence before rushing into boosters.”

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Post by ferret Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:12 am

Supposed stats for Monday, August 30th, 2021... nacional down 12,648, jalisco down 722
chapala down 4, jocotepec down 1, ixtlahuacan down 3, tuxcueca 0 and tizapan same at 2.
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Post by Jreboll Tue Aug 31, 2021 11:31 am


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Post by ferret Tue Aug 31, 2021 12:59 pm

Fascinating article on Pfizer...long and worth the read... https://www.statnews.com/2021/08/30/inside-pfizer-labs-variant-hunters-race-to-stay-ahead-of-pandemic-2/?utm_source=Nature+Briefing&utm_campaign=c1422e61a3-briefing-dy-20210830&utm_medium=email&utm_term=0_c9dfd39373-c1422e61a3-45565550

Studying Covid-19 has only emphasized how little we know. “A lot of times, when you’re working in this field, you’d look at the animal data and say this thing has a wimpy antibody response, let’s not go ahead with it,” said Roopchand. Data from the Phase 3 efficacy study of the Covid vaccine undermines that approach: Vaccinated participants have protections against the virus by day 12, at a time when there’s barely any antibody response. “That was the biggest surprise,” said Roopchand.

He’s hoping to continue dissecting the data, to try and find other indicators of effective defenses. T cells, which are produced by the immune system to destroy virus-infected cells, and antibody-dependent cellular cytotoxicity (ADCC), a specific immune response whereby a cell is covered in antibodies then destroyed by white blood cells, have largely been neglected in immunology research, said Roopchand. Perhaps you don’t need an overwhelming antibody response, and it’s more important to measure cellular immunity. “The 12-day protection data is telling us there’s more to it,” he said. “This is a great time to learn.”
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Post by ferret Wed Sep 01, 2021 6:23 am

Sometimes even TOB gets it right. Absolutely couldn't believe the links that ACD was posting about the virus vaccines. I found this article and was rebutting a link when the whole thread disappeared. I can only hope that there is some moderator with a brain over there and there is hope for the future.
https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/blog/vaccine-development-spanish-flu

Medicine evolves and there have been remarkable developments in the last 100 years, even the last 50 years. Things that were death sentences before now have cures or can help prolong life... stents, heart, lung, kidney and liver transplants come to mind. I stand firmly on the side of medicine and science.
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Post by ferret Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:27 am

Supposed stats for Tuesday, August 31st, 2021...nacional down 4520, jalisco down 327,
chapala down 2, jocotepec same at 7, ixtlahuacan down 1, tuxcueca same at 0,
tizapan up 4
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Post by kiko Wed Sep 01, 2021 7:48 am

ferret wrote:Sometimes even TOB gets it right. Absolutely couldn't believe the links that ACD was posting about the virus vaccines. I found this article and was rebutting a link when the whole thread disappeared. I can only hope that there is some moderator with a brain over there and there is hope for the future.
https://www.historyofvaccines.org/content/blog/vaccine-development-spanish-flu

Medicine evolves and there have been remarkable developments in the last 100 years, even the last 50 years. Things that were death sentences before now have cures or can help prolong life... stents, heart, lung, kidney and liver transplants come to mind. I stand firmly on the side of medicine and science.

Yeah, I was following that thread with all of the BS links from ACD quoting The Epoch Times, Bitchute, thehighwire,etc. I was going to comment but POOF the thread disappeared. A couple of days ago in the thread about the death of a well known lakesider, I mentioned the death of my neighbor and POOF the thread is locked. You would think that you would like to know if your neighbor died of Covid, wouldn't you?

And its the Reichwing that whines about the Cancel Culture. LOL
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Post by ComputerGuy Wed Sep 01, 2021 9:01 am

I'm quite sure mainecoons and all his buds from Texas use multiple profiles over there.
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Post by Jreboll Wed Sep 01, 2021 9:02 am

Author Headshot
By David Leonhardt and Ashley Wu
Good morning. We investigate Covid’s mysterious two-month cycle.

A testing site in Auburndale, Fla., last month.Octavio Jones for The New York Times
Almost like clockwork
Has the Delta-fueled Covid-19 surge in the U.S. finally peaked?

The number of new daily U.S. cases has risen less over the past week than at any point since June, as you can see in this chart:


The New York Times
There is obviously no guarantee that the trend will continue. But there is one big reason to think that it may and that caseloads may even soon decline.

Since the pandemic began, Covid has often followed a regular — if mysterious — cycle. In one country after another, the number of new cases has often surged for roughly two months before starting to fall. The Delta variant, despite its intense contagiousness, has followed this pattern.

After Delta took hold last winter in India, caseloads there rose sharply for slightly more than two months before plummeting at a nearly identical rate. In Britain, caseloads rose for almost exactly two months before peaking in July. In Indonesia, Thailand, France, Spain and several other countries, the Delta surge also lasted somewhere between 1.5 and 2.5 months.


* Between February and July 2021, depending on the country.The New York Times
And in the U.S. states where Delta first caused caseloads to rise, the cycle already appears to be on its downside. Case numbers in Arkansas, Florida, Louisiana, Mississippi and Missouri peaked in early or mid-August and have since been falling:


The New York Times
Two possible stories
We have asked experts about these two-month cycles, and they acknowledged that they could not explain it. “We still are really in the cave ages in terms of understanding how viruses emerge, how they spread, how they start and stop, why they do what they do,” Michael Osterholm, an epidemiologist at the University of Minnesota, said.

But two broad categories of explanation seem plausible, the experts say.

One involves the virus itself. Rather than spreading until it has reached every last person, perhaps it spreads in waves that happen to follow a similar timeline. How so? Some people may be especially susceptible to a variant like Delta, and once many of them have been exposed to it, the virus starts to recede — until a new variant causes the cycle to begin again (or until a population approaches herd immunity).

The second plausible explanation involves human behavior. People don’t circulate randomly through the world. They live in social clusters, Jennifer Nuzzo, a Johns Hopkins epidemiologist, points out. Perhaps the virus needs about two months to circulate through a typically sized cluster, infecting the most susceptible — and a new wave starts when people break out of their clusters, such as during a holiday. Alternately, people may follow cycles of taking more and then fewer Covid precautions, depending on their level of concern.

Whatever the reasons, the two-month cycle predated Delta. It has repeated itself several times in the U.S., including both last year and early this year, with the Alpha variant, which was centered in the upper Midwest:


The New York Times
What now?
We want to emphasize that cases are not guaranteed to decline in coming weeks. There have been plenty of exceptions to the two-month cycle around the world. In Brazil, caseloads have followed no evident pattern. In Britain, cases did decline about two months after the Delta peak — but only for a couple of weeks. Since early August, cases there have been rising again, with the end of behavior restrictions likely playing a role. (If you haven’t yet read this Times dispatch about Britain’s willingness to accept rising caseloads, we recommend it.)

In the U.S., the start of the school year could similarly spark outbreaks this month. The country will need to wait a few more weeks to know. In the meantime, one strategy continues to be more effective than any other in beating back the pandemic: “Vaccine, vaccine, vaccine,” as Osterholm says. Or as Nuzzo puts it, “Our top goal has to be first shots in arms.”

The vaccine is so powerful because it keeps deaths and hospitalizations rare even during surges in caseloads. In Britain, the recent death count has been less than one-tenth what it was in January.

In a few countries, vaccination rates have apparently risen high enough to break Covid’s usual two-month cycle: The virus evidently cannot find enough new people to infect. In both Malta and Singapore, this summer’s surge lasted only about two weeks before receding.

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Post by ferret Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:03 am

Supposed stats for Wednesday, September 1st, 2021...nacional up 1309, jalisco up 147,
chapala up 4, jocotepec up 5, ixtlahuacan up 1, tuxcueca same at 0 and tizapan same 6.
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Post by CanuckBob Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:25 am


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Post by ferret Thu Sep 02, 2021 8:29 am

Better late than never? Now, if they'll do the same and "show vaccination certificate" for flights within Mexico, I will be relieved.
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Post by ferret Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:42 pm

Supposed stats for Thursday, September 2nd, 2021...nacional up 2887, jalisco up 352,
chapala down 1, jocotepec same at 12, ixtlahuacan down 1, tuxcueca up 1, tizapan up 4.
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Post by mudgirl Fri Sep 03, 2021 9:59 pm


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Post by Jreboll Sat Sep 04, 2021 5:52 am

The results are so obvious and self evident that you have to wonder why there was even a need to do the study. Why do we have to smack people across the face with studies when common sense and logic should suffice.

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Post by kiko Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:01 am

Common sense and logic are endangered species. The internet empowered the ignorant. Objective thought has been replaced by a tweet.
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Post by ferret Sat Sep 04, 2021 7:07 am

Supposed stats for Friday, September 3rd, 2021...nacional down 1977, jalisco up 152,
chapala up 4, jocotepec down 3, ixtlahuacan up 3, tuxcueca same at 1, tizapan same at 10.
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Post by ferret Sun Sep 05, 2021 12:15 pm

Supposed stats for Saturday, September 4th, 2021...nacional up 1300, jalisco up 247,
chapala same at 13, jocotepec same at 9, ixtlahuacan up 5, tuxcueca same at 1, tizapan down 1.
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Post by ferret Mon Sep 06, 2021 8:31 am

Supposed stats for Sunday, September 5th, 2021...nacional down 4954, jalisco down 28,
chapala up 3, jocotepec down 1, ixtlahuacan up 8, tuxcueca same at 1, tizapan down 1.
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Post by ferret Tue Sep 07, 2021 9:05 am

Supposed stats for Monday, September 6th, 2021...nacional down 9981, jalisco down 422,
chapala up 6, jocotepec same at 8, ixtlahuacan down 2, tuxcueca same at 1, tizapan same at 8.
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Post by ferret Wed Sep 08, 2021 9:13 am

Supposed stats for Tuesday, September 7th, 2021...nacional up 1153, jalisco up 131, chapala down 2, jocotepec up 7, ixtlahuacan down 3, tuxcueca same at 1, tizapan up 4.
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Post by ferret Thu Sep 09, 2021 9:23 am

Supposed stats for Wednesday, September 8th, 2021...nacional up 1188, jalisco up 184,
chapala up 1, jocotepec up 1, ixtlahuacan up 5, tuxcueca same at 1, tizapan up 1.
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Post by ferret Thu Sep 09, 2021 11:05 am

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Post by ferret Fri Sep 10, 2021 9:26 am

Supposed stats for Thursday, September 9th, 2021...nacional up 2453, jalisco up 334, chapala down 1, jocotepec up 7, ixtlahuacan up 9, tuxcueca down 1, tizapan down 1.
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Post by ferret Sat Sep 11, 2021 9:51 am

September 10th stats are not available yet. I will post them when they are available.
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Post by ferret Sat Sep 11, 2021 7:06 pm

Supposed stats for Friday, September 10th, 2021...nacional up 927, jalisco up 141,
chapala down 4, jocotepec down 1, ixtlahuacan up 15, tuxcueca same at 0, tizapan up 2.
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