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More on the virus

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Post by ferret Sat Oct 02, 2021 7:23 am

Supposed stats for Friday, October 1st, 2021... nacional down 1,448 to 57,234. jalisco down 155 to 2,757. chapala same at 3. jocotepec down 2 to 11, ixtlahuacan down 3 to 11. tuxcueca same at 2. tizapan same at 17.
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Post by ferret Sun Oct 03, 2021 8:13 am

Supposed stats for Saturday, October 2nd, 2021... nacional down 1,346 to 55,888. jalisco down 179 to 2,578. chapala up 1 to 4. jocotepec same at 11. ixtlahuacan down 2 to 9. tuxcueca same at 2. tizapan same at 17.
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Post by ferret Mon Oct 04, 2021 8:48 am

No electricity so no stats. Maybe later.
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Post by ferret Mon Oct 04, 2021 10:39 am

Electricity came back on around 9:45.
Supposed stats for Sunday, October 3rd, 2021... nacional down 4,587 to 51,301. jalisco down 284 to 2,294. chapala same at 4. jocotepec same at 11. ixtlahuacan down 1 to 8. tuxcueca down 1 to 1. tizapan down 6 to 11.
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Post by kipissippi Mon Oct 04, 2021 10:52 am

It's started to slow down NOB
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Post by Jreboll Tue Oct 05, 2021 4:20 am

NYT on the 2 month cycle:

Covid-19 is once again in retreat.

The reasons remain somewhat unclear, and there is no guarantee that the decline in caseloads will continue. But the turnaround is now large enough — and been going on long enough — to deserve attention.

The number of new daily cases in the U.S. has fallen 35 percent since Sept. 1:


Worldwide, cases have also dropped more than 30 percent since late August. “This is as good as the world has looked in many months,” Dr. Eric Topol of Scripps Research wrote last week.

These declines are consistent with a pattern that regular readers of this newsletter will recognize: Covid’s mysterious two-month cycle. Since the Covid virus began spreading in late 2019, cases have often surged for about two months — sometimes because of a variant, like Delta — and then declined for about two months.

Epidemiologists do not understand why. Many popular explanations, like seasonality or the ebbs and flows of social distancing, are clearly insufficient, if not wrong. The two-month cycle has occurred during different seasons of the year and occurred even when human behavior was not changing in obvious ways.

The most plausible explanations involve some combination of virus biology and social networks. Perhaps each virus variant is especially likely to infect some people but not others — and once many of the most vulnerable have been exposed, the virus recedes. And perhaps a variant needs about two months to circulate through an average-sized community.

Human behavior does play a role, with people often becoming more careful once caseloads begin to rise. But social distancing is not as important as public discussion of the virus often imagines. “We’ve ascribed far too much human authority over the virus,” as Michael Osterholm, an infectious-disease expert at the University of Minnesota, has told me.

The recent declines, for example, have occurred even as millions of American children have again crowded into school buildings.

Hospitalizations, too
Whatever the reasons, the two-month cycle keeps happening. It is visible in the global numbers, as you can see in the chart below. Cases rose from late February to late April, then fell until late June, rose again until late August and have been falling since.


The pattern has also been evident within countries, including India, Indonesia, Thailand, Britain, France and Spain. In each of them, the Delta variant led to a surge in cases lasting somewhere from one and a half to two and a half months.

In the U.S., the Delta surge started in several Southern states in June and began receding in those states in August. In much of the rest of the U.S., it began in July, and cases have begun falling the past few weeks. Even pediatric cases are falling, despite the lack of vaccine authorization for children under 12, as Jennifer Nuzzo of Johns Hopkins University told The Washington Post. (You can see the overall trends for every state here.)

The most encouraging news is that serious Covid illnesses are also declining. The number of Americans hospitalized with Covid has fallen about 25 percent since Sept. 1. Daily deaths — which typically change direction a few weeks after cases and hospitalizations — have fallen 10 percent since Sept. 20. It is the first sustained decline in deaths since the early summer.


‘The last major wave’?
This is the part of the newsletter where I need to emphasize that these declines may not persist. Covid’s two-month cycle is not some kind of iron law of science. There have been plenty of exceptions.

In Britain, for example, caseloads have seesawed over the past two months, rather than consistently fallen. In the U.S., the onset of cold weather and the increase in indoor activities — or some other unknown factor — could cause a rise in cases this fall. The course of the pandemic remains highly uncertain.

But this uncertainty also means that the near future could prove to be more encouraging than we expect. And there are some legitimate reasons for Covid optimism.

The share of Americans 12 and over who have received at least one vaccine shot has reached 76 percent, and the growing number of vaccine mandates — along with the likely authorization of the Pfizer vaccine for children ages 5 to 11 — will increase the number of vaccinations this fall. Almost as important, something like one-half of Americans have probably had the Covid virus already, giving them some natural immunity.

Eventually, immunity will become widespread enough that another wave as large and damaging as the Delta wave will not be possible. “Barring something unexpected,” Dr. Scott Gottlieb, a former F.D.A. commissioner and the author of “Uncontrolled Spread,” a new book on Covid, told me, “I’m of the opinion that this is the last major wave of infection.”

Covid has not only been one of the worst pandemics in modern times. It has been an unnecessarily terrible pandemic. Of the more than 700,000 Americans who have died from it, nearly 200,000 probably could have been saved if they had chosen to take a vaccine. That is a national tragedy.

Covid also isn’t going to disappear anytime soon. It will continue to circulate for years, many scientists believe. But the vaccines can transform Covid into a manageable disease, not so different from a flu or common cold. In the past few weeks, the country appears to have moved closer to that less grim future.

Whatever this autumn brings, the worst of the pandemic is almost certainly behind us.

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Post by ferret Tue Oct 05, 2021 9:10 am

Supposed stats for Monday, October 4th, 2021... nacional down 7,358 to 43,943. jalisco down 466 to 1,828. chapala same at 4. jocotepec down 1 to 10. ixtlahuacan down 1 to 7. tuxcueca same at 1. tizapan down 4 to 7.
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Post by ferret Wed Oct 06, 2021 7:17 am

Supposed stats for Tuesday, October 5th, 2021... nacional down 44 to 43,899. jalisco down 77 to 1,751. chapala same at 4. jocotepec down 1 to 9. ixtlahuacan same at 7. tuxcueca same at 1. tizapan same at 7.
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Post by ferret Thu Oct 07, 2021 8:32 am

Supposed stats for Wednesday, October 6th, 2021... nacional up 247 to 44,146. jalisco up 27 to 1,778. chapala up 2 to 6. jocotepec down 5 to 4. ixtlahuacan down 5 to 2. tuxcueca same at 1. tizapan up 3 to 10.
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Post by ferret Fri Oct 08, 2021 8:13 am

Supposed stats for Thursday, October 7th, 2021...nacional up 713 to 44,859. jalisco up 21 to 1,799. chapala same at 6. jocotepec down 1 to 3. ixtlahuacan same at 2. tuxcueca same at 1. tizapan down 1 to 9.
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Post by ferret Sat Oct 09, 2021 6:28 am

Supposed stats for Friday, October 8th, 2021... nacional down 395 to 44,464. jalisco down 55 to 1,744. chapala up 2 to 8. jocotepec up 4 to 7. ixtlahuacan up 1 to 3. tuxcueca down 1 to 0. tizapan down 1 to 8.
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Post by ferret Sun Oct 10, 2021 9:14 am

Supposed stats for Saturday, October 9th, 2021... nacional down 1,011 to 43,453. jalisco down 57 to 1,687. chapala up 1 to 9. jocotepec up 1 to 8. ixtlahuacan up 2 to 5. tuxcueca up 1 to 1. tizapan down 2 to 6.
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Post by ferret Mon Oct 11, 2021 8:01 am

Supposed stats for Sunday, October 10th, 2021... nacional down 2,916 to 40,537. jalisco down 107 to 1,580. chapala down 2 to 7. jocotepec same at 8. ixtlahuacan same at 5. tuxcueca same at 1. tizapan down 1 to 5.
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Post by ferret Tue Oct 12, 2021 8:55 am

Supposed stats for Monday, October 11th, 2021... nacional down 4,755 to 35,782. jalisco down 189 to 1,391. chapala down 1 to 6. jocotepec down 1 to 7. ixtlahuacan down 2 to 3. tuxcueca same at 1. tizapan down 1 to 4.
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Post by ferret Wed Oct 13, 2021 9:09 am

Supposed stats for Tuesday, October 12th, 2021... nacional up 777 to 36,559. jalisco down 45 to 1,346. chapala same at 6. jocotepec down 2 to 5. ixtlahuacan same at 3. tuxcueca same at 1. tizapan same at 4.
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Post by ferret Thu Oct 14, 2021 7:42 am

Supposed stats for Wednesday, October 13th, 2021... nacional up 920 to 37,479. jalisco up 27 to 1,373. chapala up 1 to 7. jocotepec up 2 to 7, ixtlahuacan up 1 to 4. tuxcueca same at 1. tizapan down 1 to 3.
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Post by ferret Fri Oct 15, 2021 7:05 am

Supposed stats for Thursday, October 14th, 2021... nacional up 487 to 37,966. jalisco down 23 to 1,350. chapala down 1 to 6. jocotepec down 1 to 6. ixtlahuacan same at 4. tuxcueca same at 1. tizapan same at 3.
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Post by ferret Fri Oct 15, 2021 8:29 pm

https://www.msn.com/en-us/health/medical/all-3-covid-vaccines-still-produce-strong-immune-response-8-months-later-study/ar-AAPz6ZD

Just another article which shows that antibodies are not the be all and end all to vaccination.
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Post by mudgirl Sat Oct 16, 2021 12:09 am

Halloween displays 2021 More on the virus - Page 12 Anti-v10

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Post by ferret Sat Oct 16, 2021 6:48 am

Supposed stats for Friday, October 15th, 2021... nacional down 1,208 to 36,758. jalisco down 90 to 1,260. chapala down 2 to 4. jocotepec down 2 to 4. ixtlahuacan down 1 to 3. tuxcueca same at 1. tizapan up 1 to 4.
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Post by Jreboll Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:25 am

Another one:
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Post by ferret Sat Oct 16, 2021 8:39 am

I appreciated both cartoons but could neither like nor dislike them and certainly can't delight in the deaths. The reactions here are so limited.
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Post by mudgirl Sat Oct 16, 2021 4:28 pm

ferret wrote:I appreciated both cartoons but could neither like nor dislike them and certainly can't delight in the deaths. The reactions here are so limited.

I know, there's posts I've felt that way about before, too. There should an "appreciated" button in addition to the like and dislike ones.

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Post by ferret Sun Oct 17, 2021 9:18 am

Supposed stats for Saturday, October 16th, 2021... nacional down 8 to 36,750. jalisco down 5 to 1,255. chapala up 1 to 5. jocotepec same at 4. ixtlahuacan up 2 to 5. tuxcueca same at 1. tizapan down 1 to 3.
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Post by ferret Mon Oct 18, 2021 8:33 am

Supposed stats for Sunday, October 17th, 2021... nacional down 2,328 to 34,422. jalisco down 90 to 1,165. chapala same at 5. jocotepec same at 4, ixtlahuacan same at 5. tuxcueca down 1 to 0. tizapan same at 3.
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