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Tropical Storm Ernesto

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Post by CheenaGringo Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:07 am

Granted these are projections or models but it currently looks like Central Mexico may be in for some decent rains:

http://ibiseye.com/

http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/graphics_at5.shtml?5-daynl?large#contents

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Post by ferret Mon Aug 06, 2012 11:47 am

I'm hoping so! Been watching it for a couple of days now. I think it kind of depends how strong the hurricane is when it hits Mexico...needs a fair bit of power to get over the Yucatan into the Gulf...time will tell.
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Post by hound dog Mon Aug 06, 2012 1:25 pm

Actually, at the present time it appears that Ernesto is headed for the Southern Yucatan Peninsula and Belize with the maiin force of the storm headed inland toward Southern Veracruz state and on into Chiapas. This is a very monutainous region and the rough terran should diminish the force of the hurricane if one develops. However, the rugged topography can also stall major rainstorms over these hills and , thereby, foster devastating mudslides endangering poor, hilside communities and people´s lives in parts of Veracruz, Chiapas and, perhaps, Oaxaca to say nothing of parts of Central America in addition to Belize.

Hurricanes are a poor way to supplement normal rainfall for many reasons. I am pleased our home in the Chiapas Highlands is on the top of a hill as heavy rains accompanying fierce tropical storms can cause severe flooding in the High Jovel Valley where we live. However, whole communities nestled among steep mountainsides can be swallowed up by mudslides during these inundations so we can only hope for the best. One must actually visit the back country in the Chiapas Highlands (and the Oaxaca Highlands as well) to see and believe the precarious perches of some communities along narrow ridges that look as if the earth could give away at any time and plunge whole communities hundreds of meters to total destruction.
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Post by johninajijic Mon Aug 06, 2012 2:40 pm

We really, really need more rain.
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Post by manymoonsago Mon Aug 06, 2012 4:49 pm

We need more rain so let everyone else eat dirt? Thanks hound dog for pointing out that "hurricanes are a poor way to supplement normal rainfall."
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Post by CheenaGringo Mon Aug 06, 2012 6:32 pm

In checking the current projections, it appears that the rains may hit sometime on Saturday:

[img]Tropical Storm Ernesto Ernest10[/img]

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Post by CheenaGringo Thu Aug 09, 2012 6:50 am

While the models created by international weather organizations appear to indicate that Ernesto will stay on a western track, INFORMADOR has an article which appears to indicate a wider range of areas affected:
http://translate.googleusercontent.com/translate_c?act=url&hl=en&ie=UTF8&prev=_t&rurl=translate.google.com&sl=es&tl=en&twu=1&u=http://www.informador.com.mx/primera/2012/396274/6/asoma-en-jalisco-fin-de-semana-pasado-por-agua.htm&usg=ALkJrhjQJlj8uHWuiedEMcpt1q2fX9SZZw

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Post by Zedinmexico Thu Aug 09, 2012 7:50 am

CheenaGringo wrote:In checking the current projections, it appears that the rains may hit sometime on Saturday:

[img]Tropical Storm Ernesto Ernest10[/img]

Remember the end of the track (left side) is probably only 5 to 10% accurate.

Z

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Post by Mainecoons Thu Aug 09, 2012 3:22 pm

Nope, looks like another miss, driven south by the same pressure systems that are beginning to make our rainy season look pretty iffy.

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Post by Zedinmexico Fri Aug 10, 2012 7:59 am

Mainecoons wrote:Nope, looks like another miss, driven south by the same pressure systems that are beginning to make our rainy season look pretty iffy.


Agreed

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Post by simpsca Fri Aug 10, 2012 8:08 am

Something is blowing up outside right now!
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Post by sparks Fri Aug 10, 2012 12:20 pm

Tropical Storm Ernesto At201205_sat
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Post by Smartalex Fri Aug 10, 2012 12:49 pm

Sparks, thanks for the pic. Can you post the link to this site?
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Post by sparks Fri Aug 10, 2012 1:00 pm

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