#368 2019.02.17 David Truly, The Rise and Fall of a Foreign Retirement Community in Mexico, Ajijic. Ajijic Open Circle, Lake Chapala

[Chapala Drone]

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[CanuckBob]

Interesting video. David Truly is a very smart guy however I think his title and discussion could have been dated November, 2012 when there actually was an ongoing decline in expats due to the aftermath of the financial crisis in the US and local crime problems. I'm just not seeing that now. While he touched on the political divide that has crept in here over the past 3 years he didn't touch on the effects that social media is having on attitudes and expectations. This plays a big role, IMO.

[Trailrunner]

Well said, CB. However, ran into a Mexican friend who has begun selling real estate here and said there are lots of houses for sale. I was under the impression there was nothing, all gobbled up by the snowflakes. So, maybe they are leaving . . .

[Carry Bean]

I don't know about that. They sure sell fast on my street but maybe the higher priced houses are slowing down as far as sales go.

[ferret]

I would agree with that Carry Bean. But then, once you reach a certain price level, you are always limited in the number of buyers. Better to have a house within or below a certain price point imho... more potential buyers.
I keep an eye on what's for sale and/or rent. The higher priced homes (anything over $400,000) sit... and sit... forever. Each to his/her own.

[gringal]

I thought that the "Rise and FALL" title of the talk was misleading. In the talk itself, the "Fall" was very ephemeral. Other than that, it could have been informative to newbies, but from the looks of the audience, the attendees were mostly "oldbies".

[Carry Bean]

I have noticed on Facebook that more people who have been here a while are talking about leaving due to the congestion, etc. so that may help to explain the large number of houses for sale. They have seen the bubble burst before so may be jumping on the opportunity to sell for a good price before the bubble bursts again.

[gringal]

You're probably right about the bubble, since some of the people bought at the peak and this is the first good opportunity to recoup. Also, the people who've been here awhile are likely reaching the age where they need more health care and want to use Medicare. "Out of pocket" gets painful when you have to reach into it too often.

The congestion bothers some people more than others, but I learned to drive on the Los Angeles area freeway system and my spouse commuted on it for years, so it's no big problem for us. However, the first way around it is to do errands well before noon; the earlier the better. It's not as bad after 4 pm, either.

[Carry Bean]

That’s true. I try to get the shopping, mail pickup, etc. before 10:00 if possible.

[slainte39]

Well said, CB. However, ran into a Mexican friend who has begun selling real estate here and said there are lots of houses for sale. I was under the impression there was nothing, all gobbled up by the snowflakes. So, maybe they are leaving . . .

I don´t think there is anywhere close to the number houses for sale as there were 1 to 2 years ago.
I would say the inventory is about 25% of the high water mark a few years ago.

You always have the sediment at the bottom of overpriced, needing lots or repair, and the BAD LOCATION/ BAD LOCATION/ BAD LOCATION houses.

[MexicoPete]

I know that around Christmas, a real estate broker told me that there were very few homes available for sale, and that the prices were not dropping. He also said that it was all but impossible at that to find a rental property. I didn't get the feeling at all that things were tanking, say I up in Seattle for 48 hours more.

Maybe things have changed in the last 40 days, I don't know.

[lakeside7]

I know that around Christmas, a real estate broker told me that there were very few homes available for sale, and that the prices were not dropping. He also said that it was all but impossible at that to find a rental property. I didn't get the feeling at all that things were tanking, say I up in Seattle for 48 hours more.

Maybe things have changed in the last 40 days, I don't know.

I think the rental situation has eased and there are "plenty" of places for rent in particular on the Facebook pages...Also most/all of the under $100k house's have been sold and I am told the average price is now $195k.
What is a bit concerning was Dr truly reference .."we/gringo's" are attracting more undesirables into the area and crime is increasing

[CanuckBob]

I guess I would have to see his statistics on that one. I haven't seen cars with broken windows for quite some time. 5 or more years ago I used to see one every week on my morning walk around Ajijic centro.

[RVGRINGO]

I watched the video, and my conclusion was that there was a lot of 'fuzzy logic, and fuzzy conclusions" in the talk.

[lakeside7]

I guess I would have to see his statistics on that one. I haven't seen cars with broken windows for quite some time. 5 or more years ago I used to see one every week on my morning walk around Ajijic centro.

Bob when you talk about "statistics" I think we can all agree they are hard to come by for many reasons...My quick and dirty check is to ask "the question" in any large gathering, church or civic group etc..hands up who has experienced a B&E , Transatos Hassle, etc etc.... and you will get a "good" idea what is the % of people who have experienced a incident.....for B&E my experience has shown 15 to 20% of the gathering will put up their hands......remember many/most of the incidents are not reported.

To day I heard from friends that Lois Cugini was recently involved in a car jacking incident, near the Auditorium . She sustained minor injuries...fortunately other people around responded to her shouts and the attacker ran off

The other comment that Dr Truly said "the undesirables are moving here, because we are here"...yes the foxes are already in the hen coup

[Trailrunner]

Finally got through this video and it was painful between all the buffering and stuttering. Good topic but . . .

[Rosa Venus]

There's no other way to say it: That presentation was weak.

(I know he and his family lived here for a good chunk of time. I know everyone knows him from the "Tall Boys". And I know he's an academic who's known for gathering data, analyzing it, etc., etc.)

But that was weak.

[Trailrunner]

Yeah, it was. He never really *said* anything. He danced around all the right topics but said nothing. He's definitely a great guy and knows the deal but my take-away was he looked around the room and decided not to tell them anything they didn't want to hear. Looked like he couldn't wait to get outta there.

[WillieRae]

I felt it was an admonishment to those coming here and those wishing to change things to like they were back home and to pay attention to what is going on around you..he aware of your surroundings and who is in them. My dos pesos worth.

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