Positive NOB Article about the Mexican Economy

"Mexican economy’s growth in overdrive":

http://www.abqjournal.com/369839/biz/mexican-economys-growth-in-overdrive.html

How can an economy that is growing at less than 2 percent be described as in overdrive?

Just curious.

The article plainly states 3.8%.

That's not the figure being published here in Mexico.  

In the last three months of 2013, Mexican economy slowed for the second straight quarter expanding only 0.7 percent over a year earlier, hurt by lower production in agriculture and mining.

The primary sector contracted 0.3 percent year-on-year, hurt by lower production of sugar, maize, mango, onions and oranges.

The secondary sector shrank for the fourth straight quarter by 0.4 percent. Growth in manufacturing production (1.9 percent) and in electricity and water supply (0.8 percent) was not enough to offset a drop in construction (-4.6 percent) and mining output (-0.9 percent).

The tertiary sector was the main source of growth but rose at a slower rate (1.3 percent). Support services recorded the highest expansion (2.8 percent), followed by the retail sector (2.4 percent).

For full 2013, the GDP expanded at a significantly lower 1.1 percent, down from 3.9 percent in 2012.

After living in ABQ for 14 years, I figured out that the Albuquerque Urinal was not exactly the most rigorously written tome on the planet.

http://www.tradingeconomics.com/mexico/gdp-growth-annual

As for economic data, we are all aware it is up to the point that a given author chooses to make.  Personally, I prefer to be a "glass half full type" when it comes to Mexico and guess what?  We really enjoy our trips there!

a guy from somewhere called alberquerque knows whats going on here ?? is it the new centre of finance ? what is he on? at the moment if one looks around , its easy to see that many businesses are failing , people are getting crippled by the new governments indirect tax regime, therefore not spending.micro economics reflect what is happening nationally and I don't mean just Jalisco. its good to see big business investment here and a few internationals have done so, but in the scale of things a new nestle plant in el saltos isn't such a big deal.it seems mexico is in for a bumpy ride for this year, nothing mega bad but not good.the peso has fallen against most currencies which will help exports , government bonds have fallen drastically over the last 12 months which doesn't show a lot of confidence in the economy here, at the moment. maybe when the new governments reforms start to kick in, oil and telecoms ,we will see some more strong growth.here is an article from the world bank , which maybe a more reflective view on the economy than some guy from some where in the desert.
http://www.worldbank.org/en/publication/global-economic-prospects/regional-outlooks/lac

hickton:

Please quote anywhere in my post where I endorsed the point of the article. Unlike some who prefer strictly reading negative points of view, I make it a habit to read multiple points of view before I formulate my opinions. It also helps to visit and observe a larger geographic area before making up one's mind>

i wasnt refering to you cheenagringo, only to the guy who wrote the article. he seems out of touch with reality.

Reuters gives Mexico Bank rate holding @ 3.5% ...inflation @ 4.5%.

If you doubt the Abq. Journal, consider the official reports of over $11 billion in manufacturing, distribution, mining, and oil development announced by both international and Mexican firms.    

http://world-economic.com/articles_wej-328.html

http://bdp-americas.com/blog/2014/03/03/recent-and-upcoming-investment-in-mexico-24/#more-944

http://www.elpasoinc.com/columns/local_columnists/article_4de83d8a-ad51-11e3-a3c8-001a4bcf6878.html

http://www.realtor.org/educsess.nsf/sphandout/mexicowhitepaper2013.pdf/$file/mexicowhitepaper2013.pdf

Both   Moody's   and  Fitch  each increased Mexico's credit ratings in late 2013.

Goldman Sachs and Nomura (London) predict that Mexico will move from 15'th in economic output up into the top 10 in 6 years.

Are all these sources wrong?
Is $11 billion in planned investments in bricks and mortar and manufacturing jobs creation, by major international corporations, somehow insignificant ?

Seems like the Abq. Journal got this story right.

It's location, location, location.
When your next door neighbor is Bill Gates....can't hurt. 
Mexico and the US have only been real economic partners the last 20 years, but Mexico is slowly but steadily morphing into a "greater US economic zone".

Snowyco asks "Are all these sources wrong?"

Answer, those sources are only speculation.

Mexico's credit ratings

S&P BBB+ Stable 2013-12-19

Fitch BBB+ Stable 2013-04-08

Moody's A3 Stable 2014-02-05
A3 the same as Bahamas,and Malaysia.

arbon wrote:Snowyco asks "Are all these sources wrong?"

Answer, those sources are only speculation.

Mexico's credit ratings

S&P BBB+ Stable 2013-12-19

Fitch BBB+ Stable 2013-04-08

Moody's A3 Stable 2014-02-05
A3 the same as Bahamas,and Malaysia.

So what is your conclusion.....  or    ???

Brazil is going to win the World Cup this year. 3 to 1 fav'

Mexico is @ 100 to 1.

Are all the bookies wrong ...take your pick.

arbon wrote:Brazil is going to win the World Cup this year. 3 to 1 fav'

Mexico is @ 100 to 1.

Are all the bookies wrong ...take your pick.

Money decides the odds in sporting contests...not bookies....same with economic news.

slainte39 wrote:

arbon wrote:Snowyco asks "Are all these sources wrong?"

Answer, those sources are only speculation.

Mexico's credit ratings

S&P BBB+ Stable 2013-12-19

Fitch BBB+ Stable 2013-04-08

Moody's A3 Stable 2014-02-05
A3 the same as Bahamas,and Malaysia.

So what is your conclusion.....  or    ???

Speculation is fun.

snowyco wrote:
Is $11 billion in planned investments in bricks and mortar and manufacturing jobs creation,  by major international corporations, somehow insignificant ?

It depends on how this relatively small investment (compared to Canada and the U.S.A.) affects the 60% of Mexicans living under the poverty line. It doesn't - because of the tax and property incentives Mexico had to offer to attract investment. These companies are paying their skilled employees a small percentage of what they could earn in Canada and the U.S. This is big problem for Mexico right now - before or soon after hiring they leave for U.S./Canadian entry positions.

These are old numbers by the way. El Presidente himself announced about one month ago they are not going to achieve the growth they originally projected.

slainte39 wrote:

arbon wrote:Brazil is going to win the World Cup this year. 3 to 1 fav'

Mexico is @ 100 to 1.

Are all the bookies wrong ...take your pick.

Money decides the odds in sporting contests...not bookies....same with economic news.

The bookies always make money ... just the same as the stock brokers. Eh

Here's a chance to speculate...where will America be fracking first ...in Mexico or in the Ukraine?

arbon wrote:

slainte39 wrote:

arbon wrote:Brazil is going to win the World Cup this year. 3 to 1 fav'

Mexico is @ 100 to 1.

Are all the bookies wrong ...take your pick.

Money decides the odds in sporting contests...not bookies....same with economic news.

The bookies always make money ... just the same as the stock brokers. Eh

That's right...because the bookies don't gamble...they are just order takers and don't give a damn what the odds are or who wins or loses. They make their money on the commission or pct.

So, in answer to your question..." are all the bookies wrong?"
No, but the people who bet on wrong or losing teams, are.

Is the $11 billion dollars invested in Mexico by foreign corportions a losing bet?....¿quíen sabe?....time will tell, but someone will gobble up the $11 billion and it won't be going "home" right away.

Isn't it interesting that many of the people who wish to disagree with these positive predictions for Mexico tend to lean ?? politically? Also the same ones who criticize CFE, Pemex, perceived corruption, road conditions, lack of municipal support from the high property taxes ad nauseam!

And how many shares do you own in the Mexican stock market, how much cash would you leave in a Mexican bank?

The biggest asset in Mexico is its people - not because they have nice shiny smiles, and are wonderful to their children but because they are willing to put up with so much B.S. and not push the system over, again.

CheenaGringo wrote:Isn't it interesting that many of the people who wish to disagree with these positive predictions for Mexico tend to lean ?? politically?

I don't know how they lean politically but they certainly lean toward the abyss literally and physically.

CHILLIN wrote:And how many shares do you own in the Mexican stock market, how much cash would you leave in a Mexican bank?

The biggest asset in Mexico is its people - not because they have nice shiny smiles, and are wonderful to their children but because they are willing to put up with so much B.S. and not push the system over, again.

Are you asking "you" to someone in particular or collectively to all of us?
There are many of us "you(s)" that own Mexican acciones or with Mexican bank accounts.  Do you have any idea of the worth of the Mexican Bolsa or the total of deposits with Mexican banks.  If you did, I don't think you would be so dismissive of "us" as you were in the first sentence of your post.

arbon wrote:Brazil is going to win the World Cup this year. 3 to 1 fav'

Mexico is @ 100 to 1.

Are all the bookies wrong ...take your pick.

True, Goldman & Nomura  projected growth  and  Fitch and Moodys increases in ratings are all forward looking "speculations",  but they look backward at real data to make their predictions.

The $11 billion in new investment in bricks and mortar   manufacturing,   mining,   logistics/distribution,   high tech,   automotive, and oil production    have much more substance  and results,   than predictions or the supposed "speculations".   The  $11 billion  will create  real   millions   of new jobs and exports.

Sports betting only keeps 5% as a vig, paying the rest out to winners,  so $11 billion of sports bets does not create the economic output of building  $11 billion in manufacturing plants.

Does US have similar increases in bricks and mortar investments to make real products,  by international companies => new money  to make real products?

Or  does the US  rely on churn:   adding service jobs that build nothing and create hamburgers eaten by the already-obese -  that make more heart-attacks , - which makes more hospital and doctors visits  that  - create more churn in insurance markets  due to the highest rates of medical spending per person on the planet - and give politicians something to fight over,  -     keeping   Limbaugh, Beck, and Rupert Murdoch's Fox talking heads spun up,   sucking in yet-more $billions in advertising $$,    -   that  gives the grumpy-sector Americans yet-more years of things complain about?    

An economy based on creating and treating heart-burn and heart attacks?

A giant grease factory, that uses most of the grease it makes to keep its machinery heavily lubricated?

Would you rather have a consumer-based economy  or  one that builds and makes things?