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Lake Chapala - Extrapolated Lake Levels For 2019 Rainy Season - 10 Jun

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Post by Cincy on Thu Jun 13, 2019 1:36 pm

Update with corrected numbers:  Where Lake Chapala water levels might be after the rainy season this year.

Scenario 1: 2017 type rainy season trend from this day forward:
In mid October the lake will peak .40 meters (15.75 inches) higher than the highest point last year.

Scenario 2: 2018 type rainy season trend from this day forward:
In late November the lake will peak 1.43 meters (56.30 inches) higher than the highest point last year.

Lake Chapala Water Data

Lake Chapala - Extrapolated Lake Levels For 2019 Rainy Season - 10 Jun Lake210

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Post by CanuckBob on Thu Jun 13, 2019 5:26 pm

I walk the Ajijic malecon every day and to me it looks like the lake has already risen about an 1". A few days ago it was just slightly below the lower seawall but today it is right on top of it again.

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Post by Cincy on Wed Jun 19, 2019 2:03 pm

On this day last year, the lake level bottomed out then subsequently rose 2.44m (8 feet) over the next 5 months.  This would represent the lake levels back in the mid-70's.  I can't imagine the effect on communities all around the lake.  Let's hope we're not too "rainy" over the entire watershed this year!

Lake Chapala Water Data - History - 120 years

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Post by CanuckBob on Wed Jun 19, 2019 3:38 pm

Unfortunately my feeling is some people may want to start filling sand bags. I saw some muni guys filling sand bags the other day. I didnt see what they did with them.

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Post by Ryan Masters on Thu Jun 20, 2019 5:59 pm

The Lerma River is the main source of water in the lake and that river basin (which covers thousands of square miles) has already been getting a lot of rain.

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Post by CanuckBob on Thu Jun 20, 2019 6:49 pm

Yes, there has been flooding up river so I'm expecting a big jump come July 1.

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Post by CanuckBob on Mon Jun 24, 2019 8:20 pm

While the latest graph shows the lake drop has bottomed out it appears to have dropped a couple more inches in the past 2 or 3 days OR maybe its just calmer so it appears lower.

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Post by CanuckBob on Sun Jun 30, 2019 9:03 am

I think I saw large amounts of lirio floating in the middle this morning. That usually signifies the dams have been opened. Maybe someone living up high with a better view can confirm?

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Post by windrider17 on Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:22 am

The lirio is definitely out there.

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Post by CanuckBob on Sun Jun 30, 2019 10:44 am

Then the dams have opened right on schedule. It will be interesting to see how much the lake rises over the next 5 days or so. This is usually one of the biggest jumps in the season

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Post by Cincy on Sun Jun 30, 2019 2:22 pm

Rainfall in Ajijic this year is at a 9 year low.  Of course, this data is meaningless to the overall rainfall of the entire Lake Chapala catchment area...

Ajijic Weather

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Post by ferret on Sun Jun 30, 2019 5:36 pm

It's also meaningless from one town to another along the north shore itself. In Riberas below the 711, I've had 5.5 inches so far compared to what's shown. Jocotepec has had less than what's shown.
The lake will go up... and the lake will go down. How much or when is a crap shoot.
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Post by CanuckBob on Thu Jul 18, 2019 8:20 am

Well the lakes level is not following the trend from the past two years. It is late getting a rise this year. I suspect they haven't opened the dams yet. They seem to be holding off. Good news for the lakefronters so far.

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