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Lake Chapala - Extrapolated Lake Levels For 2019 Rainy Season

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Post by Cincy on Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:12 pm

Just looking at where Lake Chapala water levels might be after the rainy season this year based on a couple of assumptions.

Assumption 1:
The water level follows the 2017 rainy season trend from this day forward.
In mid October the lake will peak .47 meters (18.5 inches) higher than the highest point this year.

Assumption 2:
The water level follows the 2018 rainy season trend from this day forward.
In late November the lake will peak 1.62 meters (63.8 inches) higher than the highest point this year.

Lake Chapala water

Lake Chapala - Extrapolated Lake Levels For 2019 Rainy Season Lake_g10

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Post by cypress on Sat Feb 23, 2019 2:52 pm

Interesting

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Post by CanuckBob on Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:30 am

If scenario two transpires that will put the bottom the the N/S streets in Ajijic underwater. It will be at the very top of the malecon.

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Post by SunFan on Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:57 am

A question would be what the outflow through the Santiago River might be to limit depth?

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Post by CanuckBob on Sun Feb 24, 2019 4:59 am

Well Maria Isabela Restaurant was 3 feet underwater back in the 70's so I suppose it can happen again.

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Post by gringal on Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:11 am

CanuckBob wrote:Well Maria Isabela Restaurant was 3 feet underwater back in the 70's so I suppose it can happen again.

One of the members here said you had to wade through pretty high water to get a beer...but of course, they did.
Beer

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Post by CanuckBob on Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:56 am

It was slainte39 and I'm sure he would crawl 100 meters on crushed glass to get a beer...….. Beer

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Post by SunshineyDay on Sun Feb 24, 2019 8:01 am

I think it would depend on the beer. Beer

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Post by slainte39 on Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:14 am

CanuckBob wrote:It was slainte39 and I'm sure he would crawl 100 meters on crushed glass to get a beer...….. Beer

It made me go take swimming lessons. with a reward  Beer  Beer Beer
There´s an old Irish saying or joke of "why learn how to swim?, it just takes longer to drown/die if your boat goes down."

Seriously, the high water back then caused a lot of damage to properties all around the lake, so they dredged and excavated the source of the Rio Santiago at Ocotlán to lower the level of outflow.  Since the the lake hasn´t reached that level in years i would imagine that sediment and silt would have to be dealt with again as those lirio roots impede and hold a lot that would have cleaned out naturally by a constant flow of water, which hasn´t happened in a long time.

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Post by CanuckBob on Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:54 am

Agreed. Those that are down on the lakefront or needing those lower roads to access their property better be thinking of solutions because that second scenario detailed above is a high probability.

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Post by Cincy on Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:08 pm

I'm guessing the local people that erect all the temporary cabanas along the lake shore in Ajijic for the Semana Santa (Easter, April 14-20?) celebrations might be a little short on space this year!  Maybe the lake will have receded enough for them to camp out?  I think it's getting close to the time when they start claiming the best locations with a few bamboo poles...

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Post by CanuckBob on Sun Feb 24, 2019 12:55 pm

The lake has receded about 14" from looking at the water mark in the skate bowl. I doubt it will recede enough to expose that lower field by Easter unless we get an extraordinarily warm March. Even then it will be quite muddy and wet.

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Post by NoVaDamer on Sun Feb 24, 2019 6:43 pm

We're in an El Niño weather pattern this year. While these are inherently difficult to predict, the normal pattern for central Mexico is cooler/wetter winter (which we just had) and a warmer, drier summer. So we have that going for us. Neither 2017 or 2018 were El Niño years.
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Post by CanuckBob on Tue May 28, 2019 1:41 pm

Cincy's chart above is still bang on his prediction. If so, we can expect the first significant rise sometime between the end of June and mid July. I believe July 1 is when the upriver dams are now mandated to release their first load. Will be an interesting year. As we all know the local rain doesn't add a whole lot, its what they get further inland that really matters.

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Post by brigitte on Wed May 29, 2019 7:21 am

I sure hope all the dams up stream are not full and do not release at the same time like they did in Chiapas, it put Villahermosa under water when the water from the overflowing dams was let go a few years ago.. It is like a grand staircase all ending up in Tabasco that is flat as a pancake and full of swamp to start with...

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Post by brigitte on Wed May 29, 2019 7:24 am

I am sure happy the home insurrance includes flooding..

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Post by CanuckBob on Wed May 29, 2019 9:32 am

There is a preemptive solution and that is to dredge the outflow part of the Santiago River. Probably hasn't been done since the flood of 76'. I understand that is how they solved it then.

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Post by CanuckBob on Wed May 29, 2019 9:45 am

I also believe that the lake has not been dropping as much the past 3 years or so because they did fix the leaks and have built extra reservoirs in Guadalajara. They are not taking nearly as much as they used too IMO.

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Post by brigitte on Wed May 29, 2019 1:59 pm

yes but dredging ahead of a problem is just not done , it is so much better to wait for a problem and resolve it too late... Beer

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Post by CanuckBob on Wed May 29, 2019 2:10 pm

And that is pretty much what the director of ConAgua told Dale when she asked them about it. I had posted all of it in the other Lake Level thread.

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Post by brigitte on Wed May 29, 2019 2:39 pm

I think I am getting very good at figuring out the logic here.. never think one inch ahead , live in the present ,do not worry and do very little afterwards.. If you bought or live in an area that can flood your problem, same when the mountain goes down and the authorities who could have prevented just blame the people who built or lived there.. Asi es..

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Post by CanuckBob on Wed May 29, 2019 2:42 pm

Tis true I suppose. Same could be said to anyone owning waterfront or mountain bottem anywhere in the world. Shit tends to happen every so often with floods, storms and landslides.

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Post by brigitte on Wed May 29, 2019 3:11 pm

Yes but f flood is available by some dredging many countries will dredge before a problem rather than after...

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Post by ferret on Wed May 29, 2019 3:43 pm

Brigitte, "que sera, sera" is alive and well in Mexico.
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Post by brigitte on Wed May 29, 2019 3:49 pm

You have that one right : Many of the front lake properties belong to well off tapatios. it will be interesting to see what their position will be. Hopefully they will not want to be flooded and we will see if they use their influence or not. We are not on the lake but we are not that far from it so I am very interested in the subject. Very Happy

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