Re: I AM A NEWBIE INVADER!!!!

by David Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:11 pm

RickS wrote:Me thinks that trying to predict ‘who and how many’ folks might move to Mexico is a very difficult task. It takes a special kind of person, even if/when one looks at the financial aspect of it, to even consider making that move much less actually doing so. There is SO much underlying bad press NOB about Mexico (it is pervasive!) that I think a significant portion of those who might otherwise be lured will not even consider it. That’s not to say of course that many WILL come take a look-see. “They” did back in 2005 and probably will continue. It’s the number of them that is the real question.

Making predictions is extremely difficult, especially if they involve the future!

by RickS Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:25 pm

Yes, 'predicting' the past is much easier....

by David Sat Oct 07, 2017 12:54 pm

The quote was from Ezra Solomon who was on Nixon's Council of Economic Advisors. I attended a lecture he gave at Stanford in the 90s where he was asked "How far into the future can a good economist predict?" His answer was, "about a minus 90 days, unless he works for the goverment in which case it's about minus 180 days. Did you ever notice that the Gov't revises economic data every quarter for the previous 2 quarters?" He then added the quote about making predictions. I've never forgotten it!

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